A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
