Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.
A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.
That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.
Official Outrage and Private Thoughts
Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.
“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”
These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.
A Network Unravels
For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.
However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.
“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.
“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.
“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”