Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
